Season 41 Essence 1 drops February 5, 2026, featuring Matador S-Tier for Hernando Romero with 250-pull hard guarantee at 79,500 Echoes. Pity carries to Essence 2's Coordinator S-Tier (mid-late March 2026). F2P players earn 15,000-25,000 Echoes via COA IX, dailies, and codes by launch. This guide breaks down probabilities, budget strategies, and optimal spending.
Season 41 Echoes System: Budget Foundation
Echoes drive Memory Sphere pulls in Season 41. Single pulls cost 318 Echoes, 10-pulls cost 3,180—no bulk discount. Precise budgeting matters for hitting pity.
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Echoes Income Sources
F2P Earnings (15,000-25,000 total by Feb 5):
Daily quests: 15-30 Echoes/day = 450-900/month
Weekly ranked (first 3 matches after Thu 08:00 UTC+8): 40-100 Echoes = 160-400/week
COA IX (Jan 8-28, 2026): 1,125-2,500 Echoes
Maintenance compensation (Jan 8, 08:00 UTC+8): Minor bonus during 240min downtime
Redemption codes (queenbee1127, 27026, 2A543): 225-400 Echoes total
Critical Dates
Essence 1: Feb 5 - mid-March 2026 (5-6 weeks)
Essence 2: Mid-late March 2026 (Mar 18-25 estimate), runs through late April/early May
COA IX: Jan 8-28, 2026—final major Echoes farm before Essence 1
Pity System: Your S-Tier Safety Net
Pity tracks every non-S-Tier pull, resetting only when S-Tier drops. Base rate: 1-2% per pull. Soft pity starts at 60 pulls, hard guarantee at 250 (79,500 Echoes max).
Pity Carryover
Pity transfers between Essence 1 and 2 within Season 41. Hit 100 pulls on Matador without success? Those 100 carry to Coordinator's banner—you need just 150 more for guarantee.
Cumulative Probabilities:
60 pulls: 40% (19,080 Echoes)
100 pulls: 63% (31,800 Echoes)
150 pulls: 78% (47,700 Echoes)
200 pulls: 87% (63,600 Echoes)
250 pulls: 100% (79,500 Echoes)
Check Your Pity
Access Memory Sphere > Pull History. Count total pulls since last S-Tier. Season 40 S-Tier pullers start at zero; those who went dry carry progress forward.
Essence 1: Is Matador Worth It?
Matador S-Tier for Hernando Romero launches Feb 5, 2026. Essence 1 includes Cueist A-Tier, Priestess A-Tier, plus standard C/B-Tier items.
Rarity Assessment
Limited essence skins return via:
Direct purchase events (typically 12,888 Echoes)
Future throwback essences (diluted pools)
Skip Matador now? Expect 12-18 month wait for potential reruns at worse value. Feb 5 - mid-March window = optimal acquisition period.
Value factors:
Hernando mains: Maximum value
Rare users: Consider saving for Essence 2 or future seasons
Essence 2 Predictions
Coordinator S-Tier confirmed for mid-late March 2026, plus Lanternist and Game Keeper A-Tiers. Identical pity mechanics and pricing.
Timeline
Launch window: March 18-25, 2026 (based on historical spacing). Runs 5-6 weeks through late April/early May. Players farm additional 2,000-4,000 Echoes between Essence 1 end and Essence 2 mid-point via dailies and ranked.
Budget Calculator: 5-Step Method
Step 1: Current Inventory
Document exact Echoes balance today. Include Inspiration (converts at standard rates) and unclaimed rewards.
20,000+ Echoes: Significant flexibility
Under 10,000: Hard choices or recharge needed
Step 2: Project F2P Income (Through Essence 2)
90-day projection:
Daily quests: 1,350-2,700 Echoes (15-30/day × 90 days)
Weekly ranked: 1,920-5,200 Echoes (160-400/week × 12-13 weeks)
COA IX: 1,125-2,500 Echoes
Codes: 225-400 Echoes
Total: 15,000-25,000 Echoes. Conservative estimate: 15,000. Active players: 20,000-25,000.
Step 3: Factor Pity Status
0 pity: Need 79,500 Echoes for guarantee
100 pity: Need 47,700 Echoes (150 pulls)
200 pity: Need 15,900 Echoes (50 pulls)
High pity favors immediate Essence 1 pulls. Low pity favors saving for Essence 2.
Step 4: Determine Priority
Rank preferences: Matador, Coordinator, or flexibility. Consider existing skin collection—duplicate character coverage reduces value.
Step 5: Calculate Gap
Subtract projected F2P income + current inventory from target pity threshold. Remaining gap = recharge requirement.
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Recharge timing:
Early: Test luck before full commitment
Delayed: Preserve flexibility for unexpected early drops
Pull Now vs Save: Scenario Analysis
Scenario A: Pull Matador Now
Best for:
150+ pity (78%+ probability)
Hernando mains
50,000+ total Echoes (hybrid strategy viable)
Pros: Immediate use, capitalize on existing pity, 87% success at 200+ pity within 50 pulls (15,900 Echoes).
Cons: Opportunity cost—Echoes unavailable for Essence 2. No refunds if you prefer Coordinator later.
Scenario B: Save for Essence 2
Best for:
0-60 pity (under 40% probability)
Coordinator mains
Under 30,000 total Echoes
Pros: Maximum resource concentration, +6-7 weeks farming (2,000-4,000 Echoes), extended decision time.
Cons: Miss Matador entirely, waste high existing pity.
Scenario C: Hybrid Strategy
Requirements: 40,000+ total Echoes.
Attempt 60-100 pulls on Essence 1 (40-63% probability), then redirect to Essence 2 based on results.
Breakpoints:
60 pulls (19,080 Echoes): 40% chance, preserve 20,000+ for Essence 2
100 pulls (31,800 Echoes): 63% chance
Critical: Stop at predetermined threshold. Don't chase sunk costs.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake #1: Ignoring Pity Carryover
Problem: Underestimate actual S-Tier chances, skip banners where you're statistically favored.
Solution: Check pull history. Document exact pity. Players at 150+ should consider immediate Essence 1 attempts.
Mistake #2: Overestimating F2P Income
Problem: Assume perfect completion, face budget shortfalls.
Solution: Use conservative 15,000 estimate. Assume lower-end rewards (15 Echoes daily, 40 weekly ranked).
Mistake #3: FOMO Pulling
Problem: Impulsive pulls without reaching meaningful thresholds. 94 pulls (30,000 Echoes) wastes resources.
Solution: Pull only if reaching 60+ pulls (40% minimum). Partial attempts below 60 offer minimal probability.
Mistake #4: Ignoring Future Seasons
Problem: Exhaust all resources, enter Season 42 at zero.
Solution: Reserve 10,000-15,000 Echoes as Season 42 capital unless current targets justify depletion.
Expert Recommendations
Pull Matador Now If:
Pity exceeds 150 (78%+ probability)
Hernando is primary/secondary main
Total Echoes exceed 50,000
Strong aesthetic preference for Matador
Existing Coordinator skins reduce Essence 2 value
200+ pity players: Pull regardless of preference—87% success within 15,900 Echoes offers exceptional value.
Save for Essence 2 If:
Pity under 60 (under 40% probability)
Coordinator is primary main
Total Echoes under 30,000
Prefer guaranteed acquisition over gambling
Matador doesn't appeal
F2P with 15,000-20,000: Save for single-essence concentration. Additional 6-7 weeks maximizes budget.
Action Plans by Budget
0-20,000 Echoes: Choose one essence. Commit all resources. Redeem codes immediately. Maximize COA IX. Accept recharge likely needed for guarantee.
20,000-50,000 Echoes: Hybrid strategy—60-100 pulls on Essence 1, redirect based on results. Set strict limits. Supports one guaranteed S-Tier with reasonable dual-acquisition probability.
50,000+ Echoes: Pull both to guarantee. Prioritize preferred essence first. Budget supports dual S-Tier with proper pity management.
FAQ
How does pity work in Season 41?
Counter increments per non-S-Tier pull. Soft pity at 60, hard guarantee at 250 (79,500 Echoes max). Carries between Essence 1 and 2, resets on S-Tier drop.
Does pity carry from Essence 1 to 2?
Yes. 100 pulls on Essence 1 without Matador = 100 pity on Essence 2. Need only 150 more for guarantee.
Echoes needed for Matador guarantee?
Max 79,500 (250 pulls). But 63% succeed by 100 pulls (31,800), 87% by 200 (63,600). Actual cost depends on pity and luck.
When does Essence 2 release?
Mid-late March 2026. Estimated March 18-25, runs through late April/early May.
Can F2P get enough Echoes?
F2P earn 15,000-25,000 via dailies, ranked, COA IX, codes. Supports 47-78 pulls (40% probability) but falls short of guarantee without recharge.
Use Inspiration for Season 41?
Yes, if it helps reach critical thresholds (60/100/250 pulls). Converts at standard rates—functionally equivalent to Echoes for essences.