HSR 3.8 Phase 2 (Jan 7-28, 2026) forces a critical choice: pull Long Road Leads Home light cone or save for characters. This guide analyzes when the signature Nihility light cone outvalues character acquisition through damage calculations, compatibility matrices, and account-specific frameworks. Light Cone banners need 10,080-12,800 Stellar Jade average, Phase 2 provides 25-35 free pulls.
HSR 3.8 Phase 2 Banner Overview (Jan 7-28)
Phase 2 runs three weeks. Light Cone Event Warp features Long Road Leads Home (5★ Nihility) and Scent Alone Stays True (5★ Abundance). Character banners: Fugue (5★ Fire Nihility), Lingsha (5★ Fire Abundance), with 4-stars Natasha, Sampo, Arlan.
Light Cone banner: 80-pull hard pity, 0.8% base rate. Soft pity starts pull 63 (5-7% chance), escalates to 15-25% at pulls 74-79, guaranteed at 80. Featured rate: 75% first 5★, drops to 18.75% second, 6.25% third if you miss featured.
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Long Road Leads Home Stats
Level 80, S1: 60% Break Effect, 32% Break DMG amplification. Passive: applying Weakness Break with Skill grants +1 SP. In Memory of Chaos floor 12, this generates 2-3 bonus SP per floor.
Superimposition scaling: S2 (75% Break Effect, 42% Break DMG) to S5 (120% Break Effect, 72% Break DMG). Total damage multiplier: 2.475× at S1 to 2.795× at S5—12.9% increase requiring 4-5× initial investment. Poor value.
Featured Characters
Fugue's 5★ Fire Nihility kit synergizes directly: 50% Weakness Break Efficiency + 200% follow-up effectiveness on Break creates multiplicative scaling with the light cone's 32% amplification. Combined multiplier exceeds standard configs by 47-52%.
Lingsha provides sustain without competing for Nihility slot. 4-star pool offers minimal value for veterans. 4★ Light Cones (Geniuses' Repose, The Moles Welcome You, Post-Op Conversation) are consolation prizes, not strategic targets.
Core Question: Light Cone vs Character Priority
Every 160 Stellar Jade on Light Cone = one fewer character pull. Worst case: 25,600 Jade for two guaranteed 5★ Light Cones vs 14,400 for guaranteed character. But performance multipliers change the math.
Character acquisition = horizontal progression (roster diversity). Light cone optimization = vertical progression (15-40% damage boost). For accounts with complete role coverage, vertical often yields greater endgame gains.
Phase 2 free pulls: Daily Training (1,260 Jade/21 days), weekly missions (1,500/3 weeks), events (800-1,200), Simulated Universe/Memory of Chaos (800-1,000), exploration (400-800). Total: 4,760-5,760 Jade = 29-36 pulls. Insufficient for guaranteed acquisition without existing pity.
Stellar Jade Economics
Average Light Cone acquisition: 63 pulls (10,080 Jade) with soft pity. Hard pity: 80 pulls (12,800 Jade). Character banners average 70-75 pulls, 90-pull hard pity (14,400 Jade). Plan around 11,200-11,520 Jade per desired 5★.
Enter with 60+ pity or reserves for 80-pull guarantee. Stopping at 40-50 pulls = dead investment.
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Long-Term Value
Longevity depends on Break meta persistence and Nihility release cadence. Universal Break Effect/Break DMG mechanics apply to any Nihility using Weakness Break—future-proofed vs kit-specific signatures.
But Nihility path restriction limits flexibility. S1 delivers 85-90% max potential. S1→S5 requires 320-400 pulls (51,200-64,000 Jade) for 12.9% damage increase. Terrible value.
Long Road Leads Home Deep Dive
Passive triggers on Skill-based Weakness Breaks. Optimal rotation: Break with Skills when SP allows, transition to Basics/Ultimates during Break downtime for +1 SP benefit.
Synergizes with multi-hit Skills reliably triggering Breaks. AoE specialists gain more SP value than single-target focused characters.
S1 vs 4-Star Alternatives
S1: 60% Break Effect, 32% Break DMG. Closest 4-star: Geniuses' Repose (24% Break Effect, conditional DMG). 36% Break Effect gap + unconditional 32% amplification = core value.
Practical damage: Long Road S1 increases Break output 32-38% vs Geniuses' Repose S5. Translates to 15,000-22,000 extra damage per Break cycle in MoC floor 12.
The Moles Welcome You focuses on debuffs, not Break—40-45% damage gap.
Damage Increases by Scenario
Single-target bosses, high Toughness: 32% Break DMG × Fugue's 200% follow-up = 2.64× multiplier. 38-42% total damage increase over 4-stars.
AoE, multiple low-Toughness enemies: SP recovery more valuable. 2-3 bonus SP enables extra Skill rotations. 28-32% improvement.
Break-resistant enemies/non-Break teams: 8-12% increase. Insufficient to justify investment.
Superimposition Value
S2 (75% Break Effect, 42% Break DMG) = 10% damage over S1 for 10,080-12,800 Jade. Poor value vs new characters. S3-S5 follow diminishing returns.
Whales might justify S2-S3 for favorites. F2P/low-spenders: S1 is the stop point. 12.9% S1→S5 gain requires 4-5× initial cost—worst efficiency in HSR.
Character Compatibility Matrix
15%+ damage increase = strategic consideration threshold. Fugue is optimal pairing: 50% Weakness Break Efficiency + 200% follow-up × 32% amplification = 38-42% boost.
Hybrid kits (Break + DoT/debuff): 10-15% improvement. Functional with 4-stars, noticeable boost without transformation.
Pure DoT Nihility (Bleed/Burn/Shock focus): 5-8% value. Prioritize alternative signatures.
Top Priority: 15%+ Threshold
Fugue's kit explicitly synergizes, making her definitive top priority. 38-42% damage transforms her from competitive to dominant in Break teams.
Future Break-centric Nihility characters will likely follow similar patterns, extending relevance across patches.
15%+ threshold = where light cone investment competes favorably with character acquisition per Jade spent.
Moderate Benefit: 10-15%
Hybrid Nihility with Break + other damage sources. Clear endgame comfortably with 4-stars—luxury upgrade, not necessity.
Gray area where player priorities determine investment. Surplus Jade + complete rosters might justify; resource-constrained should prioritize gaps.
Includes characters benefiting from SP recovery without fully utilizing Break DMG amplification.
Universal Future Value
Break Effect/Break DMG mechanics provide universal value to future Nihility using Weakness Break. Future-proofed vs kit-specific signatures.
But Nihility restriction limits cross-path flexibility. Longevity depends on Break meta relevance across endgame modes.
Check upcoming banners/leaks. Multiple Break Nihility in 3.9-4.0 roadmaps = increased value through shared equipment.
When Long Road Beats Characters: 6 Scenarios
1. You Own Optimal Character
Secured Fugue? Enhance her 38-42% or save for future? If she's primary DPS in Break teams and you lack immediate character needs, light cone directly amplifies strongest composition.
Assumes sufficient roster coverage. Missing core sustain/support/alt DPS? Fill gaps first.
38-42% increase = faster MoC clears, higher Pure Fiction scores, comfortable Apocalyptic Shadow. Difference between success/failure for 36-star chasers.
2. Completing Meta Team's Final Power Spike
Break team built around Fugue + Harmony supports + sustain, lacking only signature weapon? Long Road represents final optimization.
Applies to players committed to Break as primary endgame strategy. Maintaining flexibility across archetypes? Weigh specialization vs balanced progression.
Final power spike assumes diminishing returns on additional characters. Functional team clearing all content? Signature often provides more tangible benefit than bench characters.
3. Sufficient Roster Diversity
Veteran accounts with 15+ built 5★s covering all paths/roles reach saturation. New acquisitions = redundant coverage. Optimization > expansion.
Sufficient diversity = 2+ viable DPS per element, multiple support/sustain, flexibility for different modes. Meeting criteria? Prioritize signatures for most-used over bench characters.
Transition from horizontal to vertical progression. Early/mid-game: character diversity. Late-game: optimization.
4. Chasing Score Thresholds
Targeting 36-star MoC, top 1% Pure Fiction, max Apocalyptic Shadow? 38-42% damage bridges performance walls with optimal play.
Applies to competitive players/content creators valuing leaderboards/max-performance showcases. Casuals satisfied with 33-34 stars gain less from min-maxing.
Honest assessment: equipment or execution limiting performance? Failing DPS checks by 5-10% despite optimal rotations? Long Road solves it. Failing mechanics? Character acquisition won't help.
5. Favorite Character Investment
Player enjoyment = valid criteria beyond optimization math. Fugue or compatible character your favorite? Signature enhances experience regardless of meta.
HSR = entertainment, not purely competitive. Satisfaction from maximizing favorites = subjective value transcending damage calculations.
Works best aligned with practical needs. Actively used in endgame = emotional + functional benefits. Benched favorites = emotional only.
6. Upcoming Banners Lack Priority
3.9/4.0 leaks show reruns you own or new characters not addressing gaps? Long Road in 3.8 Phase 2 > saving for low-priority pulls.
Requires staying informed via official announcements/community sources. Prefer avoiding leaks? Maintain larger reserves for unexpected must-pulls.
Lack of priority accounts for character quality + account needs. Mediocre character filling critical gap > strong character offering redundant coverage.
When to Skip: Character Priority Situations
Limited Roster: Diversity Trumps Optimization
<8-10 built 5★s? Prioritize expanding roster. Character acquisition unlocks new teams, elemental coverage, meta flexibility.
Diversity threshold varies by account age/spending. General guidance: 2+ DPS per element, 2 sustain, 3 support before signatures. Ensures adaptability across MoC/Pure Fiction/Apocalyptic Shadow.
New/returning players: focus exclusively on characters until reaching threshold. 15-40% light cone gap < 100%+ gap from lacking role characters.
Missing Core Roles
Lacking sustain? Prioritize Lingsha or Abundance/Preservation over Long Road. Single DPS per element? Risk when character becomes suboptimal for scenarios.
Support gaps = most severe. Harmony/Nihility enable multiple teams simultaneously. Strong support provides roster-wide value; signatures benefit only equipped character.
Evaluate quantity + quality/synergy. Three mediocre sustain ≠ eliminating need for premium if struggling with survival.
Upcoming Must-Pulls in 3.9+
3.9/4.0 features characters addressing critical needs or meta shifts? Preserve Jade over Long Road. Must-pulls: limited supports with universal applications or DPS significantly outperforming existing.
Must-pull requires careful kit/synergy/account evaluation. Community hype ≠ practical value for your roster.
Maintain 14,400-28,800 Jade (90-180 pulls) reserves when must-pulls loom. Ensures guaranteed acquisition, prevents missing critical characters due to signature investments.
F2P <28,800 Jade Reserves
F2P: maintain conservative management, prioritize guaranteed characters over light cone gambling. 80-pull hard pity = 12,800 Jade, but accounting for 50/50 losses demands 25,600 for guaranteed featured.
F2P generates ~8,000-10,000 Jade/patch via Daily Training, weeklies, events, endgame. Supports one guaranteed 5★ every 1.5-2 patches. Every decision critical.
<28,800 threshold = where light cone creates significant opportunity cost. Below? Focus characters, rely on 4-star alternatives until comfortable cushion.
Pity System and Cost Analysis
Light Cone Event Warp: 80-pull hard pity (10 lower than character's 90), 0.8% base rate (vs 0.6% character). Different probability distributions.
Soft pity pull 63: 5-7% range. Escalates through 63-73, jumps to 15-25% for 74-79, guaranteed at 80. Median: 68-72 pulls = 11,200-11,520 Jade baseline.
Average Pull Cost
Statistical modeling: average acquisition at 63 pulls (10,080 Jade) with soft pity. Includes early (1-62) and late (74-80), creating median expectation.
Averages mask variance. ~30% acquire before pull 60, 25% require 75+. Conservative planning: account for 75-80 pulls (12,000-12,800 Jade).
Featured rate adds variance. First 5★: 75% chance featured (Long Road), 25% need continuation. Worst case: 160 pulls (25,600 Jade) for guaranteed featured.
Guaranteed Acquisition: Worst Case
Enter with 60+ pity or 25,600 Jade reserves for guarantee regardless of luck. Worst case: lose 75% featured on first 5★, then full 80-pull pity for guaranteed.
160-pull worst case occurs ~6.25% of attempts (25% lose first 75%, then max pity). Statistically uncommon but catastrophic—demands conservative planning for risk-averse.
Mid-range 80-120 pulls (12,800-19,200 Jade) = more common. Plan around these vs extremes, maintain flexibility.
Opportunity Cost
Every 160 Jade on Light Cone = one fewer character pull. 10,080-12,800 average = 63-80 character pulls—substantial pity toward next character or guarantee if at 27-10 pity.
Extends beyond immediate choices to long-term progression. Jade on Long Road = unavailable for future must-pulls, limited supports, alternative signatures.
Cost-benefit: Long Road's 38-42% on specific characters vs new character value. Complete rosters? Optimization wins. Gaps? Character acquisition superior.
Decision Framework: Personal Priority Calculator
Step 1: Account Audit
List built 5★s by path/role. Identify gaps: missing elements for DPS, insufficient sustain for dual-team modes, lack of premium support. 2+ gaps? Prioritize characters.
Evaluate most-used across MoC/Pure Fiction/Apocalyptic Shadow. Fugue or compatible in 80%+ teams? Light cone amplifies primary strategy. <50%? Value weakens.
Count total built (level 80, relics, traces). <10? Focus expansion. 15+? Consider optimization.
Step 2: Performance Gap Analysis
Review recent MoC. 33-36 stars consistently? Gaps = execution/composition, not equipment. Stuck at 27-30 despite optimal play? Equipment upgrades bridge gap.
Identify failures: DPS checks by 5-10%? Long Road's 38-42% solves it. Failing mechanics/dying? Character acquisition (better sustain/CC) addresses more effectively.
Compare current Nihility light cones. Using S5 4-stars? Upgrade = 32-38% improvement. S1-S3 4-stars? Gap widens to 40-45%, strengthening case.
Step 3: Resource Inventory
Calculate current Jade + expected Phase 2 income (through Jan 28) + existing Light Cone pity. Total >80 pulls (12,800 Jade) with margin? Safely pursue without jeopardizing future.
Research 3.9/4.0 via official announcements. Identify must-pulls, calculate required reserves (14,400/character). Long Road leaves insufficient? Delay.
Account for monthly income by spending: F2P 8,000-10,000/patch, Monthly Pass +2,700, Battle Pass additional. Determines rebuild speed post-investment.
Step 4: Playstyle Preference
Prefer optimizing favorites or diverse teams? Perfecting single teams = more satisfaction from signatures. Enjoy variety = benefit from characters.
Engagement with endgame: competitive chasing leaderboards = practical value from optimization. Casual satisfied with comfortable clears = less functional benefit.
Tolerance for scarcity: conservative disliking low reserves = maintain larger cushions, light cone less attractive. Aggressive comfortable with minimal = pursue freely.
Step 5: Decision Matrix Examples
Pull Example: Veteran, 18 built characters, Fugue primary DPS, 35,000 Jade, no 3.9 must-pulls. Amplifies most-used while maintaining reserves.
Skip Example: Mid-game, 7 built, missing premium sustain, 15,000 Jade, interested in 3.9 support. Character addresses gaps + aligns with priorities.
Conditional: Late-game, 14 built, Fugue in 60% teams, 22,000 Jade, uncertain 3.9. Pull if acquired within 60 pulls (9,600 Jade), preserving 12,400+. Stop at 60 without acquisition.
Alternative Strategies
Best 4-Star Substitutes
Geniuses' Repose S5: 24% Break Effect, conditional DMG = ~65% of Long Road S1 performance. 36% Break Effect gap + no unconditional amplification = noticeable but not crippling.
MoC floor 12: Geniuses' S5 produces 12,000-16,000 less damage/Break cycle vs Long Road S1. Translates to 8-12 extra seconds, affecting scores not viability.
The Moles Welcome You: debuff focus, not Break. 40-45% gap vs Long Road—temporary placeholder only.
Battle Pass Consideration
Guaranteed acquisition, predictable refinement. Current BP Nihility options don't compete with Long Road's Break focus, but future additions might.
S5 over five patches (~7 months) = performance comparable to S1-S2 limited. Predictability appeals to players preferring steady progression over gacha.
BP costs $10/patch, $50 for S5. Compares favorably to direct Jade purchases—cost-efficient for budget spenders.
Herta Store for F2P
Undying Starlight from duplicate pulls. Current Nihility offerings don't match Long Road's Break specialization, but zero-premium-currency alternative for patient players.
Accumulating sufficient Starlight = months of pulling. Viable only for veterans with extensive histories. New players: focus characters.
Rotating inventory occasionally features strong universal light cones. Monitor rotations, plan purchases around needs.
Common Mistakes
Misconception 1: Signatures Mandatory
Most pervasive: treating signatures as viability requirements. Reality: well-built characters with S5 4-stars clear all endgame comfortably. Signatures = optimization, not enablement.
Long Road's 38-42% = difference between 45s and 30s clears, not failure vs success. Struggling due to execution/composition/relics? Signatures won't solve it.
Drives premature investment on accounts needing diversity. New players: resist community pressure for signatures before comprehensive rosters.
Misconception 2: Equal Value
Value varies dramatically by compatibility/needs/alternatives. Long Road's 38-42% on Break Nihility vs 8-12% on minimal Break synergy.
Evaluate independently vs assuming uniform value. Some signatures = transformative, others = marginal over 4-stars.
Leads to suboptimal low-synergy investments while skipping high-value options. Account-specific evaluation based on actual usage = superior allocation.
Misconception 3: Refinement Worth It
12.9% S1→S5 requires 4-5× initial investment = worst efficiency in HSR. Diminishing returns rarely justify opportunity cost.
Even whales gain more from diversifying signature coverage across characters vs refining single to S5.
Refinement trap: acquiring S1 early, continuing for superimposition. Transforms success into waste—additional pulls provide more value elsewhere.
FOMO Trap
Fear of missing out drives impulsive decisions contradicting strategic priorities. Limited timers create artificial urgency.
Long Road will rerun. Evaluate whether immediate acquisition serves needs or waiting while pursuing other priorities = superior long-term value.
Strategic decision-making separates emotional desire from practical benefit. Framework provides objective criteria counteracting FOMO, aligning allocation with progression goals.
Expert Recommendations by Player Type
F2P: Conservative Guidelines
Skip Long Road unless meeting ALL: 15+ built covering all roles, Fugue primary DPS in 80%+ endgame teams, 28,800+ Jade reserves, no 3.9-4.0 must-pulls.
Conservative threshold reflects limited income, inability to recover from suboptimal investments. Characters = consistent progression; signatures = luxury after comprehensive rosters.
Rely on S5 4-star alternatives (60-70% signature performance, zero limited cost). Gap rarely prevents completion—signatures optional.
Low Spenders (Monthly/BP): Balanced
~50% more Jade than F2P = flexibility for selective signatures. Pursue Long Road if: 12+ built, Fugue in 60%+ teams, 20,000+ Jade reserves.
Balanced approach: one signature/2-3 patches while maintaining character pace. Prioritize signatures for most-used, creating focused optimization vs comprehensive coverage.
BP light cones = cost-efficient for marginal improvements. Reserve limited pulls for high-value signatures on optimal characters.
Dolphins: Optimized Investment
Moderate spenders ($50-200/patch) pursue signatures more aggressively. Acquire Long Road if Fugue in 50%+ teams, maintaining 15,000+ Jade post-investment.
Focus on maximizing account-wide performance via strategic distribution. S1 coverage across multiple primary DPS/support > refining single to S5.
Supports ~2-3 signatures/patch cycle with character pulls. Prioritization by usage frequency = optimal returns.
Whales: Completion vs Efficiency
High spenders pursuing completion: acquire Long Road regardless of immediate needs. Comprehensive coverage ensures readiness for future characters/meta shifts.
Different criteria: S5 refinement or S1 coverage across all limited? 12.9% S1→S5 = minimal practical benefit. Broad S1 more efficient even for unlimited budgets.
Completion-focused: acquire all limited at S1, selectively refine favorites/competitive advantages. Efficiency-focused: skip refinement, invest in future limited.
FAQ
Is Long Road Leads Home worth pulling in HSR 3.8 Phase 2?
Worth pulling if: own Fugue or Break Nihility, 15+ built covering roles, 20,000+ Jade post-investment, no upcoming must-pulls. Provides 38-42% damage on optimal characters but luxury optimization, not necessity. F2P: prioritize characters unless meeting all criteria.
How much does Long Road Leads Home increase damage?
38-42% on Break Nihility like Fugue (optimal), 28-32% AoE, 8-12% minimal Break synergy. S1: 60% Break Effect, 32% Break DMG amplification. Vs S5 4-stars like Geniuses' Repose: 32-38% improvement.
Which characters need Long Road Leads Home most?
Fugue = top priority: 50% Weakness Break Efficiency + 200% follow-up = optimal synergy. Future Break-centric Nihility likely similar. Hybrid kits (Break + DoT/debuff): 10-15%. Pure DoT: 5-8%, prioritize alternatives.
Can I clear endgame without Long Road Leads Home?
Yes. All content clearable with S5 4-stars like Geniuses' Repose (60-70% Long Road performance). Signature reduces times 8-12s, improves scores, doesn't enable otherwise-failing clears. Struggling? Address execution/composition/relics before signatures.
How many Stellar Jade does Long Road Leads Home require?
Average: 10,080 Jade (63 pulls) with soft pity. Hard pity: 12,800 (80 pulls). Worst case (two pity cycles for guaranteed featured): 25,600 (160 pulls). Conservative planning: 12,000-12,800 for acquisition. Enter at 60+ pity or maintain reserves for 80-pull guarantee.
Should F2P pull light cones or characters?
Prioritize characters until 15+ built covering roles, then selectively invest in signatures for most-used. Limited income (8,000-10,000/patch) supports one guaranteed 5★/1.5-2 patches—diversity > optimization for most F2P. Light cones viable only after comprehensive rosters + 28,800+ Jade reserves for future needs.