COA IX runs January 8-28, 2026, featuring Joseph's Eternal Light S-Tier with 250-pull hard pity at 79,500 Echoes. Single pulls cost 318 Echoes with 1-2% base rates increasing to 100% at pity. Pity carries within season essences but resets between seasons. F2P players farm 1,125-2,500 Echoes through Sacred Sanctum, codes, and dailies.
COA IX Essence System Overview
COA IX operates as limited gacha from January 8-28, 2026, coinciding with Divine Procession (January 8-22) and Sacred Sanctum pre-farming (December 31, 2025 - January 8, 2026). Unlike permanent Memory Spheres, COA essences disappear after tournament ends.
Pool contains Joseph's Eternal Light S-Tier plus four A-Tiers: Knight, Painter's Deep Blue Knight, Fire Investigator's Untamed, Faro Lady's Pale Crown. Each A-Tier costs 1,388 Echoes (1,178 first week). All four discounted A-Tiers total 4,712 Echoes.
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COA IX vs Regular Essences
COA essences implement stricter pity than standard Memory Spheres. Pity increments with every non-S-Tier pull, guaranteeing S-Tier at exactly 250 pulls. Counter carries between COA IX Essence 1 and Essence 2 within same season but completely resets for COA X. Players with 100 pulls in COA VIII start COA IX at zero pity.
Tournament tie-in provides exclusive rewards. Teams earn 800-2,000 Fragments per member based on rankings (Rank 1 gets 2,000). Registration closes January 14, 2026 09:00 UTC+8 for S1/S2/S5 (S4 extends to January 15, 09:00 UTC+8). Effective deadline: January 13, 21:00 UTC+8.
Limited Window and Tournament Schedule
20-day window creates urgency. Maintenance starts January 8, 08:00 UTC+8 (240 minutes), essence available around 12:00 UTC+8. Daily resets at 00:00 UTC+8, season resets Thursdays 08:00 UTC+8 = approximately 20 daily cycles.
Sacred Sanctum offers 6 daily matches per role (60 total per role). Divine Procession provides 5 daily matches per role (20 total). Combined with Abyss Battle (1,500 Quick/Ranked or 3,000 Duo Hunters points), dedicated players accumulate substantial free resources.
Exact Echoes Cost Breakdown
Single pulls: 318 Echoes. 10-pull bundle: 3,180 Echoes (no discount, identical per-pull cost). No mathematical advantage for bulk purchases.
Critical pity breakpoints:
50 pulls: 15,900 Echoes (40% cumulative chance)
100 pulls: 31,800 Echoes (63% chance)
150 pulls: 47,700 Echoes (78% chance)
200 pulls: 63,600 Echoes (87% chance)
250 pulls: 79,500 Echoes (100% guaranteed)
At $1 per 100 Echoes rate, guaranteed S-Tier costs ~$795 worst-case.
Per Pull Economics
318 Echoes per pull = $3.18 at $1/100 Echo rate. Budget planning must account for phase reward returns. 100-pull milestone returns phase rewards worth ~1,500-2,000 Echoes equivalent, lowering effective cost per pull.
10-Pull Analysis: No Savings
10-pulls offer zero monetary savings—3,180 Echoes = exactly 318 per pull. Only advantage: time efficiency (saves 30-45 seconds vs ten singles). Relevant only for 100+ pull sessions.
Single pulls provide superior control for phase reward optimization. At 58 pulls, execute two singles to hit 60, claim rewards, reassess. 10-pull overshoots to 68, reducing flexibility.
Total Cost Scenarios
60 pulls (19,080 Echoes): Soft pity activation, 45-50% probability. Suits low-spenders accepting ~50% failure risk.
120 pulls (38,160 Echoes): Nearly half guaranteed cost, 70-75% probability. Popular stopping point for risk-tolerant collectors.
180 pulls (57,240 Echoes): 72% of hard pity cost, 85% success. Most players commit to 250 at this point—remaining 70 pulls (22,260 Echoes) = only 28% additional cost.
250 pulls (79,500 Echoes): Absolute maximum. Two guaranteed S-Tiers worst-case: 159,000 Echoes. Statistical probability suggests most get two S-Tiers within 300-350 pulls (95,400-111,300 Echoes).
Pity System Mechanics
Base drop rates: 1-2% per pull (S-Tier), constant pulls 1-59. Matches standard limited essence rates (~1 in 50-100 pulls).
Soft pity activates pull 60, implementing gradual increases. Player data suggests rates climb from 1-2% baseline to 5-8% by pull 100, then 15-20% by pull 200. Most players obtain S-Tiers between pulls 80-150.
Hard pity triggers exactly pull 250, forcing guaranteed S-Tier. Counter resets immediately to zero after any S-Tier drop (pull 5 or 250).
Official Drop Rates
NetEase discloses 1-2% for COA essences. S2 maintains 1-2%, S3 shows 1-3% range. Minimal practical impact—over 100 pulls, difference = ~0.5-1.0 additional S-Tiers per 1,000 pulls.
A-Tier items: 8-12% per pull. Pool contains four A-Tiers plus accessories. Players frequently accumulate duplicate A-Tiers before securing S-Tier, especially reaching hard pity.
Soft Pity at Pull 60
Statistical analysis shows distinct increases beginning pull 60. Cumulative probability by pull 60: 45-50% (roughly half succeed before soft pity). Among players reaching pull 60 without success, 60-70% obtain S-Tier within next 60 pulls (61-120).
Probability curve steepens pulls 120-200. Many report success pulls 140-180. By pull 200, cumulative probability reaches 87%, leaving only 13% continuing toward hard pity.
Hard Pity at Pull 250
250-pull hard pity serves as ultimate safety net, activating for ~3-5% of players. Players reaching this threshold experienced exceptionally poor luck (bottom 5% probability outcomes). Guaranteed drop at 250 ensures unlucky players still obtain skin at maximum cost.
No compensation for extended pulls—players receive exactly one S-Tier at pull 250, identical to pull 10 drops. No consolation prizes like some gacha games.
Pity Reset and Carryover
Counter resets to zero immediately upon obtaining any S-Tier. Pull 87 S-Tier → next hunt starts pull 1 with baseline 1-2%. Applies regardless of luck or hard pity.
Pity carries between essences within same COA season. 100 pulls in Essence 1 without S-Tier → begin Essence 2 at pull 101 with accumulated soft pity. Encourages continued pulling within season.
Pity completely resets between different COA seasons. Pull 200 in COA VIII without success → start COA IX at pull 1, no carryover. Seasonal reset prevents indefinite accumulation.
Statistical Probabilities
Median pulls to first S-Tier: 85-95 pulls (50% of players succeed by this point). Well below 250-pull hard pity. Median cost: 27,030-30,210 Echoes for typical players.
Cumulative probability milestones:
50 pulls: 40% probability
100 pulls: 63%
150 pulls: 78%
200 pulls: 87%
250 pulls: 100%
Expected value: 90-110 pulls (28,620-34,980 Echoes) when factoring complete probability distribution. Represents average across thousands of players.
Real Player Data
Community data from previous COA seasons shows consistent median 85-95 pulls. COA VII: 89 pulls median. COA VIII: 92 pulls. Consistency suggests stable probability mechanics.
Median significantly undershoots mean due to hard pity ceiling. Median: 85-95 pulls. Mean: 105-115 pulls (small percentage reaching 250 pulls increases average). Median provides more useful budgeting guidance.
Probability by 25-Pull Increments
25 pulls: 20-25%
50 pulls: 40-45%
75 pulls: 55-60%
100 pulls: 63-68%
125 pulls: 72-76%
150 pulls: 78-82%
175 pulls: 83-86%
200 pulls: 87-90%
225 pulls: 93-96%
250 pulls: 100%
Conservative players target 150 pulls (78% success) as maximum investment, accepting 22% failure. Aggressive players commit to 200 pulls (87% success), accepting 13% failure risk for cost savings.
Best/Average/Worst Cases
Best-case: S-Tier within 10-20 pulls at baseline 1-2%. Cost: 3,180-6,360 Echoes (4-8% of hard pity). ~15-20% of players experience this, obtaining S-Tier before pull 30. Stop immediately unless pursuing duplicates.
Average-case: 85-95 pull median, costing 27,030-30,210 Echoes. Typical player experience—soft pity triggers success after moderate investment. ~40-50% of players fall into this band (pulls 70-110).
Worst-case: 200-250 pulls. ~10-13% need 200+ pulls, 3-5% reach full 250. Cost: 63,600-79,500 Echoes (80-100% maximum). No compensation beyond guaranteed S-Tier at 250.
Phase Rewards System
Phase rewards provide milestone-based returns at specific pull thresholds. Include Inspirations, Fragments, resources partially offsetting costs. Typical milestones: 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 150, 180, 200, 250 pulls. Reward value increases at higher thresholds.
60-pull milestone: 500-800 Inspirations plus resources worth ~2,000-3,000 Echoes equivalent. Effectively reduces net cost per pull by 5-8%. 100-pull milestone offers more substantial rewards, sometimes including limited accessories/portrait frames.
Strategic timing: plan pulls to hit thresholds before January 28, 2026 expiration. 58 pulls on January 27 → execute two more to claim 60-pull rewards before essence disappears. Unclaimed rewards expire with essence.
Complete Phase Reward Tiers
10 pulls: 100-200 Inspirations + minor resources
20 pulls: 200-400 Inspirations
40 pulls: 400-600 Inspirations + exclusive accessories (emotes/standby motions)
60 pulls: 500-800 Inspirations + potential portrait frames
80/100/120+ pulls: Progressively larger returns, sometimes 1,000-1,500 Inspirations at 150 pulls
250 pulls: Special consolation package (doesn't compensate extended investment)
Echoes Equivalent Value
1,000 Inspirations ≈ 3,180 Echoes (one 10-pull). Each Inspiration ≈ 3.18 Echoes equivalent. 500 Inspirations phase reward ≈ 1,590 Echoes equivalent worth.
Cumulative phase rewards 0-100 pulls: 2,000-3,000 Inspirations (6,360-9,540 Echoes equivalent). Effectively reduces 31,800 Echoes cost of 100 pulls to net 22,260-25,440 Echoes. Factor returns into budget calculations.
Strategic Milestone Timing
January 28, 2026 expiration creates urgency. 95 pulls by January 27 → consider 5 more to claim 100-pull rewards before expiration, even with S-Tier already obtained. Phase rewards hold value independent of S-Tier acquisition.
62 pulls on January 27 without S-Tier: continue to next milestone (80 pulls) or stop? Reaching 80 requires 18 pulls (5,724 Echoes) with uncertain odds. Risk-averse players stop at 62, claim 60-pull rewards, accept sunk cost.
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Best Time to Pull
Early pulling (January 8-15): Maximum flexibility for strategy adjustment. S-Tier within 50 pulls week one → redirect budget to A-Tiers or save. Early success allows skin enjoyment throughout entire tournament.
Downside: sacrifices free Inspiration accumulation from Sacred Sanctum/Divine Procession. Pulling January 8 misses potential free resources from remaining Divine Procession (through January 22). Waiting until January 22 allows maximum free accumulation, potentially saving 500-1,000 Echoes worth.
Late pulling (January 23-28): Creates time pressure, eliminates flexibility. Starting January 25 = only 3 days to reach target, limiting ability to spread costs. Risk of technical issues, payment delays increases.
Early vs Late Analysis
Early suits: Players with confirmed budgets valuing certainty and extended enjoyment. 80,000 Echoes available January 8 → pull immediately, guaranteed hard pity coverage. Eliminates stress, allows tournament focus.
Late benefits: F2P and low-spenders maximizing free resources. Targeting only 60 pulls → wait until January 22 after Divine Procession, accumulating maximum free Inspirations. Potentially reduces required purchases by 15-25%.
Coordinating with Free Events
Sacred Sanctum (Dec 31, 2025 - Jan 8, 2026): 60 total matches per role. Completing all matches both roles = 800-1,200 Inspirations before COA IX begins. Covers ~2-4 essence pulls.
Divine Procession (Jan 8-22, 2026): 20 matches per role. Delaying pulls until January 22 accumulates additional 400-600 Inspirations, plus 210-420 Echoes from daily quests (15-30 Echoes × 14 days). Combined with Sacred Sanctum: 1,125-2,500 Echoes equivalent total.
Daily ranked bonuses: First three ranked matches after weekly reset yield 40-100 Echoes double rewards. Three weekly resets during COA IX (Jan 9, 16, 23) = 120-300 bonus Echoes. No additional time beyond normal gameplay.
Phase Reward Threshold Optimization
Approaching thresholds → pause and reassess. 58 pulls with S-Tier at pull 45 → execute 2 more to reach 60-pull threshold, claim rewards, stop. Phase rewards justify minimal investment even after S-Tier.
62 pulls without S-Tier: diminishing returns until next threshold (80 pulls). 18 additional pulls (5,724 Echoes) to reach 80 provides phase rewards but no guaranteed S-Tier progress beyond incremental soft pity. Risk-averse stop at 62, aggressive commit to 100 pulls.
Budget Planning
F2P: 1,125-2,500 Echoes during COA IX through Sacred Sanctum, Divine Procession, dailies, codes. Code queenbee1127: 75-150 Echoes. Code 27026: 75-150 Echoes. Code 2A543: 75-100 Echoes. Combined with events: 3-8 essence pulls without spending.
Low spenders ($20-50): Target 50-60 pull range, combining F2P resources with modest purchases. 40-50% S-Tier probability while preserving budget. Prioritize first-time bonuses and limited top-up events. Potentially reach 60 pulls under $40 with optimal timing.
Mid spenders ($50-150): Comfortably reach 100-150 pulls, entering 63-78% probability range. Optimal risk-reward balance. Plan for 120-pull investments (38,160 Echoes), providing 70%+ success with acceptable failure risk.
F2P Optimization
Sacred Sanctum 60 matches per role: 12-15 hours gameplay across 9 days (1.5-2 hours daily). Divine Procession 20 matches per role: 4-6 hours total across 14 days (20-30 minutes daily). Combined: 16-21 hours dedicated farming.
Daily quests: 15-30 Echoes per day, totaling 300-600 Echoes across 20 days. Require 30-45 minutes daily (Complete 3 matches, Win 1 ranked). Missing 5 days costs 75-150 Echoes.
Code redemption: immediate returns, zero time. Redeem all codes January 8 when COA IX launches, adding 225-400 Echoes. Via Lobby > Gift > Settings > ID input (~2-3 minutes). Check community sources weekly for new codes.
Low Spender Strategy ($20-50)
Focus on first-time bonuses doubling Echo value. $20 first-time: 4,000-5,000 Echoes vs standard 2,000-2,500, halving cost per Echo. Combined with F2P (1,125-2,500 Echoes): 5,125-7,500 total, covering 16-24 pulls.
Reaching 60-pull soft pity: ~19,080 Echoes total. Minus F2P (1,125-2,500) = 16,580-17,955 Echoes from purchases. With first-time bonuses: $35-45 total spending, providing meaningful S-Tier odds.
Early S-Tier luck (within 30 pulls) → redirect to discounted A-Tiers. Four first-week A-Tiers: 4,712 Echoes total, easily affordable. Ensures guaranteed cosmetic value even if S-Tier fails.
Mid Spender Strategy ($50-150)
Target 120-150 pull range, maximizing soft pity without hard pity commitment. Requires 38,160-47,700 Echoes, minus F2P (1,125-2,500) = 35,660-46,575 Echoes from purchases. At $1 per 100 Echoes with bonuses: $90-120 spending.
120-pull threshold: ~70% S-Tier probability (7 in 10 succeed). Remaining 3 in 10: accept loss and preserve budget, or commit additional 130 pulls (41,340 Echoes) to guaranteed hard pity. Critical risk assessment.
Establish hard stop rule before pulling. Example: Pull exactly 120 times, stop regardless of results. Prevents emotional decisions and budget overruns. Reaching 120 without success → view as buying phase rewards/A-Tiers rather than failing S-Tier.
Whale Tier ($150+)
Complete collection worst-case: 79,500 Echoes (250 pulls) + 4,712 Echoes (discounted A-Tiers) = 84,212 Echoes. At $1 per 100 Echoes: ~$842 maximum.
Pulling 250 times typically yields 2-3 A-Tiers through random drops. Expect ~79,500 Echoes on pulls + 1,178-2,356 Echoes on 1-2 remaining A-Tiers = 80,678-81,856 Echoes ($807-819) realistic complete collection.
Lucky whales: S-Tier within 100 pulls (31,800 Echoes) + all four A-Tiers (4,712 Echoes) = 36,512 Echoes ($365). Variance between lucky/unlucky: $365-842. Budget worst-case ($850), hope for average ($500-600).
Common Mistakes
Myth: 10-pulls have better drop rates. Mathematical analysis confirms identical per-pull probability. Ten singles at 318 Echoes = statistically identical to one 10-pull at 3,180 Echoes. 10-pull animation creates psychological bias.
This leads players to save up for 10-pulls rather than executing singles as resources available. 2,000 Echoes waiting to accumulate 3,180 delays potential early S-Tier luck by days/weeks. Singles provide immediate chances.
Mistake: Ignoring phase rewards. Stopping at 58 pulls after S-Tier misses 60-pull threshold by 2 pulls (636 Echoes). Those 2 pulls cost 636 but return rewards worth 1,500-2,000 Echoes equivalent (2.4-3.1× ROI). Always check thresholds before stopping.
10-Pull Truth
Myth likely from confirmation bias. Players remember dramatic 10-pull S-Tier reveals, forget numerous 10-pulls yielding only commons. Single successes feel less memorable.
Some claim 10-pulls guarantee at least one A-Tier+. Testing confirms no guarantee—10-pulls can yield ten common accessories, identical to ten consecutive unsuccessful singles. Probability distribution identical between methods.
Phase Reward Planning Error
Phase rewards represent 15-25% total investment value when claimed. 100 pulls (31,800 Echoes) claiming all phase rewards = ~5,000-8,000 Echoes equivalent returns. Ignoring forfeits 5,000-8,000 Echoes worth, effectively increasing net cost 15-25%.
Track current pull count and upcoming thresholds. Simple checklist: Next reward at 60, then 80, then 100. Approaching threshold → pause, decide if reaching justifies additional investment.
Pity Carryover Misconception
Many incorrectly believe pity accumulates indefinitely across all COA seasons. 150 pulls in COA VIII without S-Tier ≠ starting COA IX at pull 151. Pity completely resets to zero between seasons = start COA IX at pull 1 with baseline 1-2%.
Causes significant frustration and miscalculation. Players who invested 150 pulls in COA VIII expecting carryover feel cheated discovering reset, leading to impulsive spending. Understanding seasonal reset prevents emotional response.
Pity carries within same season between essences. COA IX Essence 1 progress carries to Essence 2. But COA IX ending → COA X beginning resets all pity regardless of prior investment.
Pulling Without Budget
Impulsive pulling without pre-calculated budgets → overspending and regret. Vague intentions like just do a few and see often leads to 100 pulls deep without S-Tier, facing uncomfortable continuation decisions. Reactive approach maximizes stress and financial risk.
Proper planning: calculate total available resources before first pull. Tally F2P farming (1,125-2,500 Echoes), available balance, maximum affordable purchases, determine hard stop. 50,000 total Echoes → decide Pull exactly 150 times (47,700 Echoes), stop regardless, preserve 2,300 for emergencies.
Pre-commitment prevents emotional decisions during sessions. Reaching predetermined stop without success → reference original plan, maintain discipline vs impulsive just one more 10-pull spiraling into overruns.
Advanced Optimization
Singles provide superior phase reward targeting. 58 pulls → execute exactly 2 singles to reach 60, claim rewards, reassess. 10-pulls overshoot to 68, wasting 8 pulls beyond threshold (not truly wasted—progress toward 80—but reduces flexibility).
10-pulls offer time efficiency for committed high-budget players. Whale planning 250 pulls regardless can use 10-pulls exclusively, saving ~10-15 minutes vs 250 singles. For players whose time holds significant value, efficiency justifies reduced flexibility.
Optimal hybrid: singles approaching thresholds, 10-pulls far from milestones. 45 pulls → 10-pull to 55, switch to singles for final 5 to precisely hit 60. Balances time efficiency with threshold precision.
Single vs 10-Pull Scenarios
F2P/low-budget (30-60 total pulls): Singles strictly superior. Need maximum flexibility for exact threshold stops. Time cost per pull (3-4 seconds) negligible vs value of precise stopping.
Mid-budget (100-150 pulls): Hybrid approach. 10-pulls for bulk (pulls 1-50, 70-90) saves time. Singles near thresholds (51-60, 91-100) maintains precision. Reduces total time 40-50% vs pure singles while preserving optimization.
Whale (250-pull hard pity): 10-pulls exclusively, minimal downside. Time savings 10-15 minutes justifies minor threshold precision loss. Exception: S-Tier at pull 243 → switch to singles for final 7 to precisely hit 250-pull threshold.
Stopping Rules
Establish before pulling prevents emotional overspending. Common rule: Stop at 120 pulls if no S-Tier, regardless of proximity to next threshold. Accepts 30% failure probability at 120, preserves budget for future essences vs chasing sunk costs.
Another: Stop immediately after S-Tier unless within 10 pulls of next phase reward. Maximizes S-Tier efficiency while capturing nearby rewards. S-Tier at pull 54 → continue to 60 (6 more) to claim rewards, stop vs continuing toward 80.
Risk-averse: Never exceed 150 pulls regardless. Caps maximum at 47,700 Echoes (60% hard pity cost) while providing 78% success. 22% failure risk accepted as cost of budget preservation.
First-Time Bonuses
First-time buyer bonuses typically double Echo value for initial purchases at each tier. Never purchased $20 package → receive 4,000-5,000 Echoes vs 2,000-2,500, halving cost per Echo. Time first purchases to coincide with major essences like COA IX.
Some spread bonuses across multiple tiers. Rather than one $100 purchase, buy $20, $50, $30 separately, claiming first-time on each. Maximizes total bonus Echoes, though requires more transactions and potential additional payment fees.
Verify first-time availability before COA IX launches. Bonuses typically reset annually or remain until claimed. Unknowingly claimed $20 bonus during previous event → cannot reclaim for COA IX, affecting calculations.
FAQ
How much does COA IX Essence cost in Echoes? Single pulls: 318 Echoes. 10-pulls: 3,180 Echoes (no discount). Guaranteed S-Tier at 250-pull hard pity: 79,500 Echoes maximum. Most obtain S-Tier at 85-95 pulls, costing 27,030-30,210 Echoes average.
What is the pity system for COA IX Essence? 250-pull hard pity with soft pity beginning pull 60. Base 1-2% rates gradually increase after 60, reaching 100% guarantee at 250. Pity resets immediately after any S-Tier. Carries between essences within same season, resets completely between different COA seasons.
When does COA IX soft pity start? Pull 60. Cumulative probability reaches ~45-50% by pull 60, accelerates to 63% by pull 100 and 78% by pull 150 due to progressive increases.
How many pulls guarantee S-tier in COA IX? Exactly 250 pulls guarantee S-Tier (79,500 Echoes maximum). ~95-97% obtain S-Tier before hard pity, median success around pulls 85-95.
When is the best time to pull COA IX Essence? F2P: wait until January 22 after Divine Procession for maximum free Inspirations. Confirmed budgets: pull immediately January 8 for extended enjoyment. Avoid final 3 days (Jan 26-28) due to time pressure.
How many Echoes needed for guaranteed COA IX S-tier? Guaranteed: exactly 79,500 Echoes for 250 pulls. Accounting for F2P farming (1,125-2,500 Echoes) and phase rewards (~5,000-8,000 Echoes equivalent through 250 pulls), effective net cost: 66,000-73,375 Echoes for unlucky players reaching hard pity.