Honkai Star Rail's Version 3.8 Phase 3 (January 28 - February 12, 2026) creates a critical resource dilemma: invest in Aglaea and Sunday's signature Light Cone, or save for Version 4.0's Elation path launching February 14? This guide breaks down the math and strategy.
Understanding the HSR 3.8 'Banner Trap'
What Defines a Banner Trap
A banner trap drains resources before more valuable content arrives. Hard pity requires 14,400 Jades for characters and 12,800 for Light Cones. Securing both Aglaea and Time Woven Into Gold demands 27,200 Jades minimum—far exceeding the 4,000-5,000 Jades F2P players earn during this two-week phase. Need resources? Honkai Star Rail top up via BitTopup offers competitive pricing and instant delivery.
Why Version 3.8 Is Controversial
Three factors converge:
Aglaea introduces unproven Remembrance path - Level 80 stats: 1241 HP, 698 ATK, 485 DEF, 102 SPD. Team-building dependencies limit flexibility.
Sunday's signature cone competes for resources - A Grounded Ascent (Level 80 S1): 1164 HP, 476 ATK, 529 DEF. Provides 6 Energy to allies after Skill/Ultimate, +15% DMG per Hymn stack (45% max at 3 stacks).
Version 4.0 arrives 48 hours after Phase 3 ends - Leaked Elation path characters may offer superior damage and broader compatibility.
Opportunity Cost: Pulling vs Saving
F2P monthly income: 8,000-10,000 Jades (50-62 pulls) from Daily Training (900-1,800), Gift of Odyssey (1,600 + 10 passes), Memory of Chaos Floor 12 (800-1,200).
Spending Phase 3's 4,000-5,000 Jades leaves minimal reserves for 4.0. Double limited banners need 28,800 Jades to guarantee both characters. You're forced to choose: commit to 3.8 and skip 4.0, or preserve resources and miss Aglaea permanently.
Aglaea Kit Analysis & Remembrance Mechanics
Skill Set and Damage Rotation
Lightning Remembrance character centered on Brocade stack accumulation. Time Woven Into Gold at S5: +20 SPD, +90% CRIT DMG at max stacks. Her 102 base SPD enables frequent turns; 698 base ATK provides solid scaling but requires heavy CRIT investment.
Remembrance Path Mechanics
Memory-based damage amplification through stack accumulation. Creates feast-or-famine patterns—exceptional peaks but vulnerable to disruption. Memory of Chaos phase transitions interrupt stacks; Pure Fiction's waves may not provide sufficient ramp time.
E0S0 Performance
At minimum investment with 4-star cones, Aglaea underperforms. With A Grounded Ascent S1 Sunday support, she achieves 38.4% higher damage vs Memories of the Past. Without signature cone, you need weeks of relic farming to approach optimal performance.
Damage Ceiling vs Current DPS
E0S1 Aglaea competes in single-target but lacks AOE efficiency vs Feixiao in multi-target. Represents incremental improvement, not transformative power—a luxury pull for established accounts.
Sunday Light Cone Value Assessment
Full Stat Breakdown
A Grounded Ascent Level 80 S1: 1164 HP, 476 ATK, 529 DEF. 6 Energy regeneration enables faster rotations. Hymn stacks: +15% per stack (45% max S1), +24% per stack (72% max S5). S5 requires 24,000-40,000 Jades—prohibitively expensive.
F2P Alternatives Performance Gap
Dance! Dance! Dance! S5 offers 24% ally action advance after Ultimate. Memory of Chaos Floor 12 testing:
Dance! Dance! Dance! S5: 6 Ultimates, 42s cycles, 2,840,000 damage
A Grounded Ascent S1: 5 Ultimates, 45s cycles, 2,720,000 damage
Free alternative outperforms by 4.4% in team damage. But Pure Fiction: Dance clears in 6:22 vs signature's 6:48—26s disadvantage affecting star thresholds.
Universal Applicability
Energy regeneration benefits any Ultimate-dependent team. Unlike character-specific cones, maintains value across multiple Harmony supports. For players planning to buy Honkai Star Rail Oneiric Shards through BitTopup, versatile Light Cones provide better ROI.
Long-Term Investment
If 4.0 Elation Harmony supports use Energy-hungry kits, A Grounded Ascent remains best-in-slot. However, HoYoverse may introduce superior path-specific alternatives—inherent gacha risk.
Pull Breakpoint Mathematics
E0S0 Aglaea: Minimum Viable
14,400 Jades for guaranteed at hard pity. Character Event Warp: 0.6% base rate, soft pity ~pull 73-74, hard pity pull 90. On 50/50 status: 28,800 Jades to guarantee if you lose coinflip.
E0S1 vs E1S0 Value
Light Cone Event Warp: 12,800 Jades hard pity (80 pulls), 0.8% base rate. Featured cones: 75% rate-up first acquisition. Soft pity averages 63 pulls (10,080-12,800 Jades).
E0S1 (character + cone) typically provides larger damage increases than E1S0 for DPS. Aglaea's E1 would need to exceed 38.4% damage increase from Time Woven Into Gold to justify skipping signature.
E0S1 Sunday Cone for Aglaea Teams
If you own Sunday but lack A Grounded Ascent, 12,800 Jades benefits entire account. However, 4.4% advantage in specific scenarios and 26s Pure Fiction disadvantage suggests signature is optional with Dance! Dance! Dance! S5.
Total Jade Costs
Worst-case scenarios:
E0S0 Aglaea (guaranteed): 28,800 Jades
E0S1 Aglaea (both guaranteed): 41,600 Jades
E0S1 Sunday Cone Only: 12,800 Jades
E0S0 Aglaea + E0S1 Sunday: 41,600 Jades
Phase 3's 4,000-5,000 income covers only 12.5-17.4% of E0S1 cost.
Pity System Deep Dive
How Limited Banner Pity Works
Two-tier system: hard pity guarantees 5-star at pull 90 (characters) or 80 (Light Cones). Soft pity begins ~pull 73-74 (characters) or 63 (Light Cones), exponentially increasing rates.
Soft Pity Optimization
Light Cone soft pity at 63 pulls: 10,080 Jades gives reasonable odds before hard pity. Character soft pity: 11,680 Jades (73 pulls).
Stop pulling immediately after acquiring target to preserve pity for future banners.
50/50 Recovery
Character banners: first 5-star has 50% chance of featured unit. Losing guarantees next 5-star is featured, creating 28,800 Jade worst-case.
Track guarantee status. On guaranteed (lost previous 50/50): need 14,400 Jades worst-case. On 50/50: budget 28,800 Jades.
Statistical Expected Costs
Accounting for soft pity:
Character (50/50): ~20,000-22,000 Jades average
Character (guaranteed): ~11,000-12,000 Jades average
Light Cone (75% rate): ~9,000-10,500 Jades average
Unlucky players still hit hard pity—budget worst-case for must-haves.
Stellar Jade Income: 3.8 Through 4.0
Phase 3 Confirmed Sources
4,000-5,000 Jades total:
Daily Training: 900-1,800
Gift of Odyssey: 1,600 + 10 passes
Memory of Chaos Floor 12: 800-1,200
Daily missions/login: ~400-600
Equals 25-31 pulls—insufficient for soft pity on character banners.
F2P vs Low-Spender Monthly Income
F2P: 8,000-10,000 Jades (50-62 pulls)
Daily Training: 3,600-7,200
Gift of Odyssey: 1,600 + passes
Memory of Chaos: 1,600-2,400
Pure Fiction/Apocalyptic Shadow: ~1,200-1,600
Events/compensations: ~800-1,200
Low-spender (Express Pass + Battle Pass): +3,000-4,000 monthly = 11,000-14,000 total (68-87 pulls)
4.0 Buffer Planning
Major updates historically feature dual limited banners. Both characters need 28,800-57,600 Jades.
Conservative planning: maintain 30,000+ Jades entering 4.0 to guarantee one character regardless of 50/50. Heavy Phase 3 spending sacrifices this buffer.
Version 4.0 Elation Path: Leaks & Predictions
Official vs Leaks
HoYoverse confirmed February 14, 2026 launch but no character details. Beta leaks suggest joy/entertainment-themed mechanics: turn manipulation, unconventional damage scaling.
Leak credibility varies—treat as provisional, not confirmed.
Predicted Mechanics
Potential systems: damage bonuses scaling with HP loss, turn order manipulation, unconventional resource systems replacing Energy. Could enable new team archetypes incompatible with current supports.
Rumored Roster
At least two 5-star Elation characters: likely limited DPS and specialized support. Major version updates (X.0) typically introduce 15-25% stronger characters to drive revenue.
Meta Shift Potential
New paths fundamentally alter team-building. Remembrance's launch created demand for specific supports, temporarily devaluing incompatible units. Elation could repeat this, marginalizing Remembrance investments if superior.
4.0 may introduce endgame content favoring Elation mechanics—players heavily invested in 3.8 might struggle without roster diversification.
Decision Framework: Pull or Skip
Checkpoint 1: DPS Roster Strength
If you lack strong Lightning DPS, Aglaea fills a gap. If you own well-built Lightning characters (Jing Yuan, Kafka), she's redundant.
Three+ built DPS clearing Memory of Chaos Floor 12 with 36 stars = less urgent need. Struggling for full clears = more immediate value.
Checkpoint 2: Sunday Ownership
Aglaea performs optimally with Sunday. Lacking him means pulling both (41,600+ Jades worst-case) or skipping Aglaea until Sunday reruns.
Own Sunday with Dance! Dance! Dance! S5? The 4.4% advantage suggests signature cone is optional. Prioritize Aglaea over Sunday's cone if limited.
Checkpoint 3: Resources & Pity
Calculate total available:
Current Jades + Undying Starlight
Expected Phase 3 income (4,000-5,000)
Current pity count (character/Light Cone)
Guarantee status (50/50 or guaranteed)
41,600+ Jades with guaranteed status = safely acquire E0S1 Aglaea. Below 28,800 on 50/50 = risk failing to secure base character.
Checkpoint 4: Endgame Clear Rate
Consistently achieving 36-star clears = less pressure for incremental upgrades. Struggling at 30-33 stars may benefit from Aglaea if Lightning weakness appears.
But endgame rotates weaknesses regularly. Single-element investment risks poor ROI. Balanced rosters provide consistent performance.
Pull Aglaea If:
41,600+ Jades, want character + cone
Own Sunday, lack strong Lightning DPS
Guaranteed status with 14,400+ Jades for E0S0
Prioritize collection over meta
No interest in 4.0 characters
Skip Aglaea If:
Under 12,800 Jades before soft pity
Lack Sunday, can't afford both
Own multiple built Lightning DPS
Saving for specific 4.0 characters
Prioritize meta-defining units
Team Building Requirements
Core Archetypes
Hypercarry: Aglaea + Sunday + defensive support + sustain
Dual DPS: Aglaea + sub-DPS + Sunday + sustain (high investment)
Mono-Lightning: Aglaea + Lightning supports + sustain
Hypercarry requires premium supports like Sunday, limiting flexibility.
Sunday Dependency
Testing shows significant degradation without Sunday. His action advance maintains Brocade stacks; damage buffs amplify burst windows. Alternatives (Bronya, Sparkle) accept 20-30% performance reduction.
Alternative Supports
Bronya: Action advance, lacks damage amp/Energy regen. Needs high Speed. Sparkle: CRIT DMG buffs, Skill Point generation, no action advance. Tingyun/Yukong: Energy regen, less direct damage amp.
Budget players make Aglaea functional with 4-stars but can't match whale performance without Sunday.
Relic Recommendations
Prioritize CRIT Rate, CRIT DMG, ATK%, SPD substats. Signature cone's CRIT DMG scaling makes CRIT Rate body pieces valuable. Speed breakpoints (143, 160, 177) enable additional turns.
Farming optimal relics requires 2-3 weeks Trailblaze Power exclusively—extends time-to-value.
Misconceptions & FOMO Management
Myth: Limited Characters Always Need Signature Cones
False. Sunday's 4.4% advantage with Dance! Dance! Dance! S5 proves free options compete. Aglaea's 38.4% gap translates to 10-20s clear time differences—meaningful for leaderboards, irrelevant for star thresholds.
F2P: prioritize character acquisition over cones.
Myth: Skipping Means Falling Behind
Meta shifts occur gradually. Characters remain viable 6-12 months post-release. Skipping Aglaea doesn't invalidate your account—just misses one option among many.
Well-built 4-star teams clear all endgame content. Skill, team knowledge, relic optimization often matter more than raw power.
Long-Term Health vs Short-Term Spikes
Roster breadth > individual depth. Six E0S0 limited characters provide more flexibility than two E2S1, enabling adaptation to varying mechanics.
Heavy single-banner investment creates temporary advantages but limits future options.
Resist Banner Pressure
Set hard budgets pre-launch, commit to stopping
Calculate opportunity costs explicitly
Remember reruns occur every 6-9 months
Focus on current roster capabilities
Avoid showcase videos during banners
Final Verdict
Pull Aglaea E0S0 If:
Own Sunday with Dance! Dance! Dance! S5+
Have 28,800+ Jades (guaranteed on 50/50 loss)
Lack strong Lightning DPS
Don't prioritize leaked 4.0 characters
Can maintain 15,000+ Jade reserve
Prioritize Sunday Light Cone If:
Own Sunday, use Dance or weaker alternatives
Have 12,800-15,000 Jades (cone soft/hard pity)
Plan to skip Aglaea
Value universal support upgrades
Skip Phase 3 If:
Under 12,800 Jades total
Saving for specific 4.0 Elation characters
Own well-built Lightning DPS
Lack Sunday, can't afford both
Prioritize meta-defining units
Preserve 30,000+ Jades entering 4.0 to guarantee one featured character.
Hybrid Strategy (Moderate Spenders):
Pull Aglaea E0S0 with current reserves
Purchase 10,000-15,000 Jades to restore buffer
Skip Sunday cone, use Dance! Dance! Dance! S5
Maintain 20,000+ Jade minimum for 4.0
BitTopup offers competitive rates for Stellar Jade with secure transactions and instant delivery.
Decision depends on account state, resources, and priorities. No universal answer—only informed choices based on math and strategy.
FAQ
Is Aglaea worth pulling in HSR 3.8 or skip?
Pull only if you own Sunday, have 28,800+ Jades for guaranteed acquisition, and lack strong Lightning DPS. Skip if fewer resources, lack Sunday, or prioritize 4.0 Elation characters (February 14, 2026).
Does Sunday need his signature light cone?
No. Dance! Dance! Dance! S5 outperforms A Grounded Ascent S1 by 4.4% team damage in Memory of Chaos testing. Signature provides Energy regen benefits but isn't mandatory.
How much jade to guarantee Aglaea and cone?
Worst-case: 41,600 Jades (28,800 character + 12,800 cone). Average with soft pity: 30,000-35,000 Jades.
What is a banner trap?
Limited releases immediately before more valuable content, pressuring resource spending. 3.8 Phase 3 (Jan 28 - Feb 12) runs two days before 4.0's potentially superior Elation path.
Can Aglaea work without Sunday?
Yes, with Bronya/Sparkle, but suffers 20-30% performance reduction. Remembrance mechanics synergize specifically with Sunday's action advance and damage amp—near-mandatory for optimal performance.
Should F2P pull cones or save for characters?
Prioritize characters. Diverse roster coverage across elements/paths provides more value than optimizing singles with signature cones. Pull cones only after establishing functional 6-8 character roster.
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