COA IX (January 8-28, 2026) sees Antiquarian dominating with 80%+ ban rates due to 49% Stage 1 rescue success and 60-second kites via Mechanical Flute. This guide shows how her meta dominance affects prediction rewards, scoring strategies, and Fragment earnings across all phases.
Current Tournament Statistics
Antiquarian faces 80%+ ban rates in COA IX—the highest restriction rate ever recorded. Previous seasons saw top survivors at 60-65%. This escalation spans three phases: Sacred Sanctum (Dec 31, 2026-Jan 8, 2026), Divine Procession (Jan 8-22), and Radiant Altar finals (Jan 22-29).
Teams prioritize Antiquarian bans in first-phase selections consistently. Understanding these patterns directly impacts prediction accuracy and Fragment accumulation. Identity V Echoes Recharge through BitTopup ensures you've got resources for prediction events with secure transactions and instant delivery.
Stage 1 Rescue Dominance
Antiquarian's 49% Stage 1 chair rescue rate is the highest among all survivors. Allowing her through bans increases survivor win probability by 15-20% on large maps like Lakeside Village.
Mechanical Flute enables 60-second kite extensions forcing hunters into bad positions. Paired with Forward, teams achieve 120+ second kite chains, guaranteeing cipher completion before first elimination.
Persona 129 Impact
Persona 129 grants dash immunity during critical animations, eliminating hunter counterplay. Matches where she's unbanned see 23% longer durations. Teams with Antiquarian specialists maintain 67% win rates when she passes bans vs. 52% baseline.
Why She Dominates COA IX Meta
Season 39 changes (September 17, 2025) shifted dynamics in her favor. The 10-15% faster chair rescues synergize with Mechanical Flute, creating windows hunters can't contest.
The 165% healing cap initially seemed like a nerf, but Antiquarian bypasses this through area-denial mechanics. Pro teams adapted by prioritizing kite extension over healing rotations.
Large Map Advantages
Lakeside Village, Moonlit River Park, and Red Church are her strongest environments with 15-20% win rate advantages. Extended sightlines and multiple structures allow Mechanical Flute placements creating overlapping safe zones.
She faces 85-90% ban rates on large maps vs. 75-80% on smaller venues, showing teams' awareness of environmental factors amplifying her capabilities.
Survivor Synergies
Priestess maintains 80% ban rates partly because portals combine with Antiquarian's kites for unbreakable rotations. Teams forced to ban both sacrifice hunter-side flexibility.
Current meta prioritizes survivors effective despite the 165% healing cap. Antiquarian and Mechanic (200% robot decoding, 81-second ciphers) are core competitive picks. This survivor-favored environment explains 3-5 minute hunter queues vs. 1-2 minutes for survivors.
Impact on Prediction Rewards
COA IX's Fragment system rewards accurate predictions during Sacred Sanctum and Divine Procession. Understanding Antiquarian's 80%+ ban rate is essential—matches with her available are statistical outliers you can exploit for bonus multipliers.
Tournament scoring: highest Hunter score × 2 + top 4 Survivor scores. Hunter matches yield 1200-1500 points, Survivor matches 800-1000. Correctly predicting Antiquarian bans lets you focus on alternative compositions, improving accuracy.
Fragment Tiers
Rank 1: 2000 Fragments per member
Rank 2: 1500 Fragments
Rank 3: 1200 Fragments
Ranks 4-8: 800 Fragments
Ranks 9-16: 600 Fragments
Ranks 17-50: 500 Fragments
Sacred Sanctum allows 6 daily matches per role (60 total), Divine Procession permits 5 daily (20 total). Correctly predicting Antiquarian bans across 80+ matches accumulates significant Fragment advantages.
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Prediction Timing
Quick Matches: 12:00-22:00 server time. Ranked Matches: 12:00-14:00 and 19:00-21:00. Monitor these windows to identify when pro teams scrim, revealing draft preferences.
Abyss qualification requires 1500 Quick/Ranked points or 3000 Duo Hunters points, creating a skill-gated pool where meta understanding—especially survivor ban priorities—rewards informed participants.
Hunter Ban Comparisons
Dream Witch maintains 75-80% pick/ban rates, the hunter equivalent of Antiquarian's presence. Priestess's 80% ban rate matches Antiquarian's, indicating teams prioritize eliminating rescue-focused survivors.
Dream Witch Positioning
Her 75-80% pick/ban rate stems from applying simultaneous pressure across cipher locations, countering Mechanic's fast-decode strategies. When Antiquarian passes bans, teams frequently select Dream Witch as optimal counter.
This creates rock-paper-scissors dynamics where teams anticipate strategies three moves ahead. Matches where both Antiquarian and Dream Witch remain available represent high-variance scenarios with elevated multipliers.
Regional Variations
China server: 85-90% Antiquarian ban rates. Global Championship: 75-80%. Asian-Pacific: 80-85%. These differences reflect regional playstyle priorities.
Regional variations become critical during Radiant Altar finals (Jan 22-29) when top teams from different servers compete. Track regional scrims to identify team-specific preferences for accuracy advantages.
Prediction Strategy When She's Banned
When Antiquarian faces first-phase bans (80%+ of matches), teams default to predictable hierarchies: Priestess (most common), Mechanic (decode-focused), Forward (aggressive kite).
Map-specific patterns refine accuracy. Lakeside Village sees elevated Mechanic selection (65%) when Antiquarian's banned. Smaller maps like Arms Factory favor Forward (58%).
Team-Specific Drafts
Top 8 teams display distinct survivor preferences persisting across phases. Teams with Antiquarian specialists struggle on backups, creating upset opportunities with higher multipliers. Track individual player performance across different survivors.
Club membership requires joins 12+ hours before matches count, creating roster stability. Teams can't make last-minute substitutions, ensuring preparation-phase predictions remain valid.
Backup Hierarchy
When both Antiquarian and Priestess face bans (45% of matches), tertiary selections vary by region. China server favors Perfumer (52%), Global Championship prefers Seer (48%).
Pro teams practice limited survivor pools rather than maintaining flexibility across all characters, creating predictable fallback options when primary selections are unavailable.
Reward Catalog & Value Analysis
Prediction rewards emphasize consistent participation over perfect accuracy. Sacred Sanctum's 60 matches per role provide substantial Fragment earning with 55-60% accuracy.
Exclusive cosmetics require 8000-12000 Fragments, limited accessories cost 3000-5000. Complete collection needs ~35000 Fragments, achievable through daily participation and 65%+ accuracy.
Currency Optimization
Divine Procession's reduced count (20 per role) increases each prediction's value. Allocate larger Fragment wagers to matches with predictable patterns—guaranteed Antiquarian bans on large maps—while minimizing exposure to volatile cross-regional matchups.
Registration closes January 14, 2026 09:00 UTC+8, but effective deadline is January 13, 21:00 UTC+8 for processing. Early registration accesses Sacred Sanctum predictions immediately after December 31, 2025 maintenance.
Premium Rewards
A-tier skins and limited frames require totals achievable only through sustained high-accuracy. Maintaining 70%+ accuracy across Sacred Sanctum and Divine Procession accumulates sufficient Fragments for premium items without Radiant Altar participation.
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Common Misconceptions
High ban rates don't reduce prediction potential—accurate ban predictions yield consistent Fragments. Antiquarian's 80%+ restriction creates predictable patterns that informed participants exploit better than volatile low-ban-rate survivors.
Thinking only match winners affect scores overlooks the multi-layered system rewarding draft accuracy, individual performance predictions, and match duration forecasts. Comprehensive strategies outperform narrow approaches.
Regional Stream Parity
Different regional streams don't offer varying rewards. COA IX implements unified Fragment distribution across all official channels. You receive identical rewards regardless of China server, Global Championship, or Asian-Pacific streams.
Ban phase accuracy provides more consistent accumulation than upset predictions with higher multipliers. While correctly forecasting unexpected drafts yields bonus Fragments, sustainable earnings derive from reliable identification of meta-standard patterns like Antiquarian's 80%+ rate.
Maximizing Prediction Currency
Daily limits cap Sacred Sanctum at 6 matches per role. Select high-confidence predictions rather than exhaustive participation. Optimal timing: submit during the final hour before match start, allowing maximum information from pre-match announcements and scrims.
Bonus events during playoffs/finals multiply earnings by 1.5-2.0x. Conserve resources during early stages, deploy aggressive wagers during high-multiplier windows for premium thresholds through concentrated late-tournament participation.
Echo Acquisition
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Calculate total Echo requirements before COA IX begins, accounting for prediction items and direct cosmetic purchases. Early acquisition through BitTopup's bulk options provides budget optimization vs. incremental buying.
Semifinals Prediction Framework
Radiant Altar finals (Jan 22-29) represent highest-stakes predictions where Fragment multipliers reach maximum values. Analyzing Divine Procession data reveals strategic tendencies persisting into finals, particularly Antiquarian ban priorities and backup selections.
Counter-pick patterns when she's available follow predictable hierarchies. Teams with elite Dream Witch players show 78% win rates against Antiquarian compositions, while teams lacking this specialist win only 43%. Identify player-specific capabilities for precise draft predictions.
Upset Opportunities
Cross-regional matches between China and Global teams create elevated upset potential due to playstyle incompatibilities. China's aggressive early-game clashes with Global's late-game scaling, producing volatile outcomes rewarding bold predictions with 2.5-3.0x multipliers.
Final day strategy should prioritize volume over precision. Cumulative Fragments from multiple moderate-confidence predictions exceed potential earnings from single high-risk forecasts. Players within 2000-3000 Fragments of premium thresholds benefit from conservative approaches guaranteeing tier achievement.
Registration Deadlines
Registration officially closes January 14, 2026 09:00 UTC+8, but complete by January 13, 21:00 UTC+8 for processing before Sacred Sanctum. Late registrations risk missing early windows providing highest total earning potential.
Tournament runs January 8-28, 2026—three weeks determining global supremacy. Maintain consistent engagement throughout, leveraging Antiquarian ban knowledge and meta understanding for maximum Fragment accumulation and premium rewards.
FAQ
Why is Antiquarian banned so frequently in COA IX? She faces 80%+ bans due to 49% Stage 1 rescue rate, 60-second kites via Mechanical Flute, and Persona 129 dash immunity. These provide 15-20% win rate advantages on large maps, making her the highest-priority ban.
How does ban rate affect prediction rewards? Her predictable 80%+ ban rate allows higher prediction accuracy, directly increasing Fragment accumulation. Correct ban predictions contribute to scoring determining reward tiers from 2000 Fragments (Rank 1) to 500 (Ranks 17-50) per member.
Which survivors have comparable ban rates? Priestess maintains 80% matching Antiquarian's frequency. Dream Witch achieves 75-80% pick/ban on hunter side. These three are the most contested selections in draft phases.
How do I maximize points when she's always banned? Focus on secondary selections following predictable hierarchies: Priestess (primary alternative), Mechanic (decode-focused), Forward (kite-extension). Map patterns refine accuracy—Lakeside favors Mechanic (65%), Arms Factory prefers Forward (58%).
What are the reward tiers? Rank 1: 2000 Fragments. Rank 2: 1500. Rank 3: 1200. Ranks 4-8: 800. Ranks 9-16: 600. Ranks 17-50: 500 per member. Complete collection requires ~35000 Fragments across all phases.
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