Genshin Impact's Capturing Radiance mechanic, introduced August 28, 2025 (Version 5.0), fundamentally changed the 50/50 system with a loss counter preventing four consecutive losses. The probability of losing 50/50 twice consecutively is 22.5% under Capturing Radiance (50% × 45%), down from 25% in the old system. This guide breaks down exact statistics, mechanics, and strategic implications for optimizing wish investments.
Understanding Capturing Radiance Wish System
Capturing Radiance tracks loss history and adjusts probabilities accordingly. Overall featured 5-star rate reaches 55% across all pulls—a 5% improvement over the previous 50% baseline.
Three Counter States
Counter 1 (Baseline): 50% chance for featured character Counter 2 (After one loss): 55/45 odds in your favor—10% swing from baseline Counter 3 (After two losses): 100% guarantee via Capturing Radiance
You cannot lose four 50/50s consecutively. The third loss automatically triggers Capturing Radiance, guaranteeing the featured character and resetting counter to 1. Winning a 50/50 decreases counter by 1.
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Core 50/50 Mechanic
When pulling a 5-star on Character Event Banner, the game determines: featured character or standard pool (Qiqi, Diluc, Jean, Mona, Keqing, Dehya, Tighnari). Each standard character has ~14.3% probability when losing 50/50.
Loss counter increases by 1 per standard character received. Counter persists across different Character Event Banners—losing on Kinich's banner carries to Xilonen's banner. Winning decreases counter by 1.
When 50/50 Activates
50/50 only occurs when pulling a 5-star. Pity counter (separate from loss counter) guarantees 5-star at pull 90, with soft pity starting around pull 75. The 50/50 determination happens at the 5-star pull moment.
At counter 2 approaching soft pity, you're in statistically advantageous position: 55/45 base odds plus 33.333% Capturing Radiance probability. These enhanced probabilities compound with soft pity's increased 5-star rates.
Loss counter only resets to 1 when Capturing Radiance triggers. Winning at counter 2 drops you to counter 1—you maintain progress toward guaranteed trigger if subsequent pulls lose.
Statistical Odds: The Math
Base System vs Capturing Radiance
Starting from Counter 1:
First loss: 50% probability → advances to counter 2
Second loss: 45% probability (due to 55/45 odds)
Combined: 50% × 45% = 22.5%
This 2.5 percentage point improvement means ~1 in 44 players avoid double loss they'd experience under old system. Consolidated featured rate of 55% reflects 6.59% higher delivery rate than simple 50/50 mechanics.
At Counter 2 Already:
Next loss: 45% probability
Next win: 55% probability
If you lose → counter 3 → 100% guarantee next pull
The 83.333% event character chance at counter 3 reflects guaranteed Capturing Radiance trigger combined with impossibility of receiving standard character.
Real-World Risk
~1 in 4.4 players starting from counter 1 will experience two consecutive losses (22.5%), compared to exactly 1 in 4 (25%) under previous system. Planning to pull for two different featured characters across consecutive banners? You face 22.5% chance of losing both.
The 66.667% event character chance at counter 2 combines 55% base win rate with 33.333% Capturing Radiance probability at this counter level.
Independent Events
Each 50/50 operates independently at its specific counter state. Game code doesn't remember previous outcomes on other banners or accounts. At counter 1, you always face exactly 50% odds regardless of history.
Counter system modifies future odds based on tracked outcomes, but each pull resolves according to current counter state's fixed probabilities—not adaptive algorithms adjusting to player behavior or spending.
How Capturing Radiance Works Step-by-Step
First 5-Star: Initial 50/50
At counter 1, you face pure 50/50: featured character or standard pool. No Capturing Radiance trigger possible (0% chance at this stage).
Win: Receive featured character, counter decreases to 0 or remains at 1. Next 5-star faces 50/50 at counter 1.
Lose: Receive standard character, counter advances to 2. This persists across banners—lose on Mualani, switch to Kinich, you're still counter 2.
Second 5-Star: Enhanced Odds
At counter 2, next 5-star benefits from 55/45 odds plus 33.333% Capturing Radiance probability.
Win (55% chance) or Capturing Radiance triggers: Receive featured character, counter decreases to 1.
Lose (45% chance): Counter advances to 3 → next pull guarantees Capturing Radiance at 100%.
Tracking Pity Status
Wish History (accessible via History button) shows last 6 months of pulls. Count pulls since last 5-star on Character Event Wish for pity count.
Game doesn't display loss counter—manually track whether last Character Event 5-star was featured (counter at 1) or standard (counter increased). If last two 5-stars were both standard, you're at counter 3 (guaranteed next).
Worst-Case Scenario: Primogem Cost
Maximum: 180 Pulls
Absolute worst-case requires 180 pulls (28,800 primogems):
Reach hard pity at 90 pulls, lose 50/50 at counter 1 → counter 2
Reach hard pity at 90 pulls, lose 55/45 odds → counter 3
Pull once more → guaranteed Capturing Radiance
In practice, soft pity (starting pull 75) makes this rare. Most players get 5-stars between pulls 75-85, reducing practical worst-case to ~160-170 pulls.
Primogem Breakdown
Each Intertwined Fate costs 160 primogems:
First 90 pulls: 14,400 primogems
Second 90 pulls: 14,400 primogems
Total: 28,800 primogems
F2P players accumulate ~60-70 pulls per patch through events, dailies, Abyss, exploration. Guaranteeing featured character requires saving 2-3 patches (12-18 weeks) from zero.
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Soft Pity Reality
Statistical analysis shows average 5-star at pull 77-80. Realistic worst-case:
First 5-star at pull 80: 12,800 primogems
Second 5-star at pull 80: 12,800 primogems
Total: 25,600 primogems
Players at counter 2 entering soft pity face compounding advantages: enhanced 5-star rates + 55/45 odds + 33.333% Capturing Radiance probability.
Old System vs Capturing Radiance
Mechanical Comparison
Pre-5.0 Character Event Wish:
Fixed 50/50 every non-guaranteed pull
No loss counter
Guarantee only after one loss
Theoretical infinite consecutive losses possible
Overall featured rate: 50%
Capturing Radiance (5.0+):
Dynamic odds: 50/50 → 55/45 → 100%
Loss counter tracks consecutive losses
Guarantee after two losses maximum
Impossible to lose more than twice consecutively
Overall featured rate: 55%
5% improvement = ~1 additional featured character per 20 five-stars across account lifetime.
Pity Carryover
Pull count toward next 5-star carries between Character Event Banners. Loss counter also carries forward—lose on one banner, approach next at counter 2 with 55/45 odds.
Pity and loss counter DON'T carry between banner types. Character Event, Weapon Event, and Standard maintain separate tracking.
Common Misconceptions Debunked
I'm Due for a Win
Gambler's fallacy doesn't apply except through explicit loss counter. At counter 1, you face exactly 50% regardless of account history. Counter system creates mechanical being due at counter 2 (55/45) and counter 3 (100%), not cosmic luck balancing.
Pulling at Specific Times Improves Odds
No evidence supports time-based odds changes. Server-side pseudorandom generation doesn't correlate with time of day, day of week, or banner launch timing. 50% base chance remains constant 24/7.
Single Pulls Have Better Rates
Single and 10-pulls use identical probability mechanics. 10-pull executes ten consecutive single-pull determinations simultaneously. Only difference: single pulls provide precise pity control, preventing wasted pulls past 90.
Strategic Wishing
F2P Risk Assessment
Only pull when you can guarantee (28,800 primogems) or at counter 2/3 with one pity cycle (14,400 primogems). Pulling at counter 1 without guarantee risks depleting reserves without securing character.
22.5% probability of double loss means ~1 in 4.4 F2P players pulling two consecutive banners without guarantee will lose both—consuming 3-4 months savings.
F2P at counter 2: 55% odds justify risk for highly-desired characters even without full guarantee.
Low Spender Budget
Welkin + BP = ~90-100 pulls/patch, enabling guaranteed character every 1.5-2 patches. Maintain guarantee fund of 14,400 primogems, spend excess on desired characters.
At counter 1 with 20,000+ primogems, safely attempt 50/50 knowing guarantee funds remain if you lose.
Guarantee Fund Strategy
Conservative: Maintain 28,800 primogems reserve for absolute guarantee.
Modified: Maintain 14,400 primogems (one pity), spend excess. Accepts 50/50 risk while guaranteeing completion if you lose.
Counter 2 players: Reduce fund to 14,400 primogems—can't lose more than once before Capturing Radiance.
Banner Priority Framework
Evaluate each banner:
Power level: Critical roster gap or new team compositions?
Loss counter: At counter 2/3 with improved odds?
Upcoming banners: Higher-priority characters in next 2-3 patches?
Primogem reserves: Can reach guarantee if you lose?
Constellation value: Which standard characters provide value?
High-priority at counter 2/3: Pull without full guarantee. Medium-priority at counter 1: Require guarantee funds. Low-priority: Only pull with excess beyond guarantee for upcoming targets.
Standard Characters: Best of a Loss
Value Rankings
Tier 1 (Valuable):
Jean: Universal healing + VV support. C2 adds 15% movement/attack speed. C4 reduces Anemo resistance.
Mona: Burst amplification + freeze enabler. C1 extends Omen duration.
Tighnari: Strong Dendro DPS. Constellations reduce charge time.
Tier 2 (Functional):
Diluc: Reliable Pyro DPS, outclassed but functional.
Keqing: Mobile Electro DPS with exploration utility.
Tier 3 (Disappointing):
Dehya: Limited meta applications.
Qiqi: Healing without energy generation. Constellations provide minimal improvement.
Rankings vary by roster needs. Lacking healers? Jean/Qiqi gain value. Need Hydro for freeze? Prioritize Mona.
Maximizing Primogem Resources
Income Calculations
F2P Monthly:
Daily Commissions: 1,800
Spiral Abyss (36-star): 2,400
Events: ~2,000-2,500
New content: ~1,000-1,500
Maintenance: 600
Codes: 300
Total: ~6,200-7,000 primogems (38-43 pulls)
Welkin Monthly: +2,700 = ~8,900-9,700 (55-60 pulls)
Welkin + BP Monthly: +1,360 + 4 fates = ~10,260-11,060 + 4 fates (68-73 pulls)
F2P requires ~4 months to guarantee from zero. Welkin requires ~2.5 months.
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Calculate exact shortfalls against thresholds (14,400 or 28,800) to avoid over-purchasing.
Advanced Probability
Three Losses Across Banners
Losing three consecutive 50/50s requires pulling different banner types (Character Event can't produce three losses):
Character Event losses (counter 1→2→3): 50% × 45% = 22.5%
Standard Banner loss (separate system): 50%
Combined: 22.5% × 50% = 11.25%
Winning Both: 25% Success
Starting counter 1, winning two consecutive 50/50s: 50% × 50% = 25%. ~1 in 4 players attempting two consecutive characters without guarantee will obtain both.
From counter 2 then counter 1: 55% × 50% = 27.5%—slightly better.
Expected Value
Counter 1 EV:
50% win at ~80 pulls (12,800) + 50% lose at ~160 pulls (25,600)
EV: 19,200 primogems
Counter 2 EV:
55% win at ~80 pulls (12,800) + 45% lose at ~160 pulls (25,600)
EV: 18,560 primogems
640 primogem average savings per character at counter 2 accumulates to multiple additional characters over years.
FAQ
What are odds of losing twice in a row? 22.5% from counter 1 (50% × 45%). ~1 in 4.4 players experience double loss.
Can I lose three times consecutively on Character Event? No. Counter 3 guarantees Capturing Radiance at 100%. Four consecutive losses impossible.
Does loss counter reset with new banners? No. Counter persists across all Character Event Banners. Lose on Mualani = counter 2 on Kinich.
Primogems needed to guarantee? Maximum 28,800 (180 pulls). Realistically ~25,600 (160 pulls) due to soft pity.
Does winning reset counter to zero? Winning decreases by 1, not to zero. Counter 2 win → counter 1. Counter 1 win → stays counter 1. Only Capturing Radiance at counter 3 resets to 1.
Which standard characters from lost 50/50? Qiqi, Diluc, Jean, Mona, Keqing, Dehya, Tighnari—equal probability. Jean and Mona provide most value; Qiqi least desirable.